As of the beginning of 2022, mortgage rates and inflation have risen at an alarming rate, putting pressure on the housing and stock markets. Economists are making predictions for the year because of fears of a recession and the general unpredictability of the economy. Let’s take a look at some prediction for mortgage rates.
In the coming year, there will be some fluctuations in the housing market, but not all of the changes will be bad. There might be some good news for homebuyers who have been frustrated by the lack of available properties and fierce competition for them. Mortgage rates and home prices are not expected to fall, but they are expected to stabilize. Moreover, buyers who have been struggling to keep up with rising prices and interest rates may be relieved by this announcement.
Prediction for Mortgage Rates for July 2022
As inflation rises, so does the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, affecting mortgage interest rates. The Fed responds to rising inflation by increasing its monetary strategy, which invariably increases mortgage rates.
Experts think that by the end of 2022, the 30-year fixed-mortgage rate will range from 5% to 7%. Here are more specific Prediction for mortgage rates as of late June 2022:
- High inflation and rates above 5% are headwinds for the housing market in the coming months, states MBA Joel Kan. MBA predicts home sales will fall below 2021 levels.
- NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: “Mortgage rates near 6% for the rest of year.” They could rise close to 7% if the oil and gas supply lags and raises winter heating prices.
- Realtor.com’s chief economist predicts mortgage rates will reach 5.5% by 2022.
- Zillow VP of Capital Markets Paul Thomas: “Given present conditions and Fed guidance, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall soon.”
Prediction for Mortgage Rates: How High Will Mortgage Rates Rise in 2022?
From what we know now, 30-year mortgage rates will remain high through 2022. Mortgage Bankers Association’s June forecast says that the rate will be 5% at the end of 2022 and then slowly go down to 4.4% by 2024.
Chief Economist Lawrence Yun thinks that rates will stay above 5.5% for a few months, but he doesn’t think they’ll touch 6%. “Most of the change in mortgage rates that will come from the Federal Reserve’s expected to change in monetary policy has already been priced in. So rate hikes in the future by the Fed might have less of an effect on mortgage rates.
What Is Causing Mortgage Rates to Rise?
Mortgage rates have continued to rise in 2022 due to several factors, including:
- Inflation at 8.3% is expected to continue for the foreseeable future
- Increases in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate are expected to continue throughout the year.
- Volatility in stock markets and the conflict in Ukraine have contributed to global uncertainty.
According to a senior economist, Nadia Evangelou, inflation will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, necessitating multiple rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
Jason Gelios, a real estate agent, points out that the war in Ukraine and the volatile stock market also contribute to rising mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates are also affected by the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages, which have not gone away.
A Loan With a Higher Interest Rate Is More Expensive.
The cost of your loan will increase the most as rates rise. In calculating the monthly mortgage payment, principal and interest costs are considered. If interest rates rise, so do payments and the total cost of borrowing.
Visit our mortgage calculator to see how much you might be able to afford, as well as how different interest rates might affect that total amount.
Borrowers with a $100,000 mortgage who see their rates rise from 3% to 5% will see their monthly payments rise by $100. This can greatly impact your budget and the total cost of your loan over time.
Higher Mortgage Rates Can Make It More Difficult to Qualify.
A mortgage lender compares your monthly income to all of your other debts. Getting a loan is more difficult if your debt-to-income ratio (DTI) is above 36%.
With a higher DTI, it is harder to get a loan when your mortgage payment increases because of higher interest rates.
Rising Rates Are Not the Only Problem for First-Time Homebuyers.
There is also a prediction that interest rates will upsurge to as high as 4.25% by the end of 2022. You don’t need to panic because even rates above 4% are quite relatively low. Other economic factors have become more critical for homebuyers.
For the country, home prices have been rising at a rate of between 17 and 18% year-over-year.
In fact, it’s hard to buy a house because prices are rising and there aren’t enough houses for sale.
Refinancing: Is There Still Time?
Homeowners are scrambling to refinance to save money on rising mortgage rates. Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed term are currently averaging 5.7%. According to data analytics firm Black Knight, this only leaves about 500,000 homeowners in a position to refinance their mortgages.
Refinancing will become more difficult as interest rates rise.
At least 720 FICOs, 20% equity in the home, and the ability to lower their interest rate by at least 0.75 percent by refinancing are all required to qualify for a Black Knight refinance.
Should You Lock in a Mortgage Rate?
Homeowners who can still refinance must lock in a rate soon. According to most experts, mortgage rates will rise through 2022, so lock in a low rate now.
Locking in a mortgage rate is also a good idea if you plan to move soon. You will, however, have to consider the local housing market and when you can get an offer accepted rather than the current interest rates.
Don’t try to time the market, as most mortgage professionals will advise prospective homebuyers. Any time is a good time to purchase if you are in a position to do so. Although interest rates are rising, 2022 is not an exception.
Now that you have all of the Prediction for mortgage rates, you can proceed. Important to note is that periods of sudden interest rate increases are typically followed by several months or years of gradually declining interest rates. Thus, mortgage rates cannot and will not continue to rise forever, and historically, they have been favorable for homebuyers.